With covid, the situation can change very quickly and that's exactly what happened here in New South Wales.
Thu, 30. September 2021
Reality Check
For the first eighteen months of the covid 19 virus pandemic, here in NSW (after the first wave) it was mostly contained. Compared to the rest of the world we were doing extremely well at controlling the disease. As a medium-sized country it was encouraging to see Australia listed as low as 120th in the world in case numbers.
In NSW the numbers were dribbling upwards at the rate of about four or five per day, all due to returning Australians in quarantine and who were no danger to the community.
Despite us remaining mostly isolated, we did go on a couple of short excursions earlier in the year and were looking forward to more. We had our first vaccination and we were hoping to return (almost) to normal again soon after our second dose. We would be able to see the family and go out for the day.
It was looking good and I was expecting to soon join my friends at dark sky observing sessions - but in the middle of June, along came the delta variant. We went into two weeks lock-down on 26th June - almost fourteen weeks ago - but it failed to control the outbreak and we have remained locked down.
The rise of the delta variant was beyond the resources of the previously excellent NSW contact tracing teams. It was too fast for them. However, it coincided with the slow early stages of the vaccination programme and it quickly became apparent that vaccination was the only tool we have to control it.
NSW case numbers peaked at 1573 on 11th September and have now dropped below 1,000.
Hospital occupancy peaked at 1266 on 21st September and is now below 1,100
ICU occupancy peaked at 244 on the same day and is today down to 213.
Here's a comparison of where we were in June and where we are now:
New South Wales covid figures since Jan 2020:
January 2020 | to 16th June 2021 | to 30th Sept 2021 | |
Total covid infections | 0 | 5,434 | 62,164 |
% pop. infected | 0.00% | 0.067% | 0.767% |
Infection rate | 0 | 1 per 1,501 | 1 per 131 |
Total covid fatalities | 0 | 56 | 393 |
Case fatality rate | ~ | 1.03% | 0.63% |
Death rate | ~ | 1 per 144,643 | 1 per 20,611 |
Today, second dose vaccinations stand at 62.9% of the population 16 and over (and rising at 1% per day). First doses stand at 86.7% (and are still rising at 0.5% per day).
On 11th October (Lock-down Day 107) some of our freedoms will be restored after second doses are expected to pass 70%. Two or three weeks after that, second doses will pass 80% and more freedoms will be restored.
This all sounds very wonderful but there seem to be caveats for the elderly and the vulnerable:
- Some vaccinated people are still being hospitalised, entering ICU and dying, albeit with "underlying health conditions".
- The Premier has told us that "cases, hospitalisations and ICU admissions will go through the roof" after restrictions are lifted.
- Up to 10% of the adult population will remain unvaccinated and whilst their freedoms will not be restored yet, they can still easily spread the disease.
- Vaccinations are not 100% effective but will reduce the effects in most of the population.
- Fully vaccinated people can still catch the disease.
- Fully vaccinated people can still pass on the disease.
It seems that once the State is opened up, the people at serious risk of hospitalisation and death will be not only the unvaccinated but also vulnerable people with underlying health issues. I have not heard the government address this yet.
What all his means for my Bride and I remains unclear. Restoration of freedoms is great but it remains to be seen whether we have the confidence to mix with our family and friends, to attend to all our outstanding health needs and to go on day excursions again.
Will the vaccinations protect us despite our own health conditions or will we still be trapped at home indefinitely?
30th September 2021