Wed, 7. July 2021
The Age of Covid
State of the virus
As of yesterday, Australia had recorded 30,832 covid-19 cases with 910 deaths. Compared to most other countries we have done remarkably well, with one person in 834 infected, compared to one person in 43 worldwide.
Here in Australia's most populated state of NSW we have fared even better, with just 5836 cases, 56 deaths, an infection rate of one in every 1,400 and a low case fatality rate of only 0.96%.
Worldwide there have been over 184 million cases and approaching 4 million dead.
Global | Australia | New South Wales | |
Covid infections | 184,536,711 | 30,832 | 5,808 |
% pop. infected | 2.35% | 0.12% | 0.072% |
Infection rate | 1 per 42.5 | 1 per 834 | 1 per 1,398 |
Covid fatalities | 3,991,577 | 910 | 56 |
Case fatality rate | 2.16% | 2.95% | 0.96% |
Death rate | 1 per 1,966 | 1 per 28,260 | 1 per 144,643 |
Yes we've done well in keeping the virus out but the good news stops there.
Australia is the lowest vaccinated country in the OECD. Currently 8.4 million doses have been administered and the vaccination rate is 7.6% fully vaccinated and 17.8% have only received the first dose. Way behind comparable countries.
We were told that Australia was at the front of the queue for vaccines but it turns out we are actually at the end of the queue. While other countries invested in a much larger basket of vaccines, we were told that orders for four vaccines was good enough. One of them was discontinued, one of them we did not order enough and is still scarce and one of them is still not available here. The one vaccine we heavily relied on was found to cause health issues and a lot of people don't want it.
It has been a shemozzle.
Mistakes have been made throughout the pandemic, such as the Ruby Princess debacle last year, which was a joint NSW/Commonwealth stuff-up which contributed to loss of life; and the vacillating of the NSW Government before calling this current lock-down.
The Commonwealth Government is responsible for aged care but stood back while covid ran riot through aged care facilities. They are also responsible for quarantine but passed it on to the states in the form of a flawed hotel quarantine system, instead of planning and constructing specialised quarantine facilities. Eighteen months into the pandemic, there is still only one dedicated purpose-built quarantine facility, at Howard Springs, Darwin.
Over recent months the covid 19 virus has evolved into a more easily transmitted "delta strain" virus and we have had outbreaks all over the country, including here in Sydney where our two week lock-down which began on 26th June has just been extended to three weeks. This is because the delta variant transmits so easily before symptoms arise and the tracing system can barely keep up. The number of cases remains high.
Conflicting messages
The Commonwealth Government has failed its four principal tasks: aged care, quarantine facilities, bringing Australians home and vaccine acquisition. I'm now getting concerned about the NSW State Government too.
During this lock-down there have been conflicting messages. Four days ago (one week into the lockdown) the Premier announced at her media conference that people should get out and enjoy the sunshine. Yes, you're in lock-down but leave home and get outside anyway. Today, her advice, expressed very firmly, was that "any form of mobility spreads the virus, we should stay at home". The CMO said that "if you have enough food at home, you should stay at home". The Premier then ominously said "we are entering a very scary period.
One thing both governments have in common is a desire to open up Australia. The Premier says that after this lock-down is over she will not call another one. They all want to be back where we were in 2019, with freedom of international movement and building up the economy.
They want everyone vaccinated so that they can treat the covid19 virus as a minor illness like influenza.
The big problem is the ungainly rush to open up the economy before the vaccinations are done.
One thing we do know is that there are a lot of toxic anti-vaxers in Australia - and a lot of people who may not be anti-vaxers but remain vaccine-hesitant.
No-one is prepared to say what vaccination level is required for herd immunity but what does seem clear is that the vaccines do not provide 100% immunity and it is still possible to catch the virus, even when fully vaccinated.
We live in uncertain times.
On a personal level, we've missed seeing our family but we will receive our second vaccine dose in about five weeks, which hopefully will give us more confidence to "open up".