Sun, 29. March 2020
Scary Times - 3
The last supper.
Our last social outing was the meeting at Macarthur Astronomical Society on 17th February, preceded by our last meal with friends at the wonderful Spice of Life Indian Restaurant, where we entertained Australia's Astronomer at Large, Prof. Fred Watson. The formal meeting afterwards was well attended and Fred gave a great talk and sold (and signed) lots of copies of his latest book, Cosmic Chronicles.
On that date, China was in lock-down with tens of thousands of cases and we already feared what was coming to Australia. There were already fifteen coronavirus cases here, most or all of them here in Sydney.
Semi-confinement.
The next day, 18th February we placed ourselves in self-imposed semi-confinement, relying mostly on our usual weekly home deliveries from Woolworths.
Our sole visit to the supermarket in that period was 6th March, where we were the only ones trying to keep our distance and wearing face masks. That was just three weeks ago but it seems a life-time. The store was mostly well stocked although some shelves seemed a bit low on items. By that date the number of cases in Australia had climbed to sixty-three (of which twenty-eight were here in NSW). World-wide it was 75,000.
From that point it was clear to us that Joan was at very high risk - due to her low immune system - and she needed to remain permanently at home. We are both also in the Covid-19 high risk category.
I nervously attended a couple of medical tests and the pharmacy but it was clear that we both had to hibernate.
Total confinement.
On 19th March, the world passed 200,000 reported cases and the number of cases in Australia reached 708 (NSW 306). It was Day 31 of voluntary semi-confinement and we decided we had to enter into total confinement.
It has to be serious for me not to attend an astronomy field night - and Society members had been deprived of observing opportunities for four months due to the savage bush fires, air pollution and subsequent flooding.
However, when the moment finally arrived on the 20th March to go out with my telescope, I had to decline. It was just as well I did, because at 9 pm that night our GP called Joan to instruct her to remain in permanent isolation for her own protection. That meant both of us being in forced hibernation for maybe the next six months or more. 😨 😨
I cancelled a medical appointment but took up the offered tele-consultation instead.
Current situation.
It is clear that the government lied about its preparedness for a pandemic. They said they were ready but they weren't as ready as they should have been.
The public too was initially slow to react to the outbreak but by now, a large percentage of the Australian population is taking the pandemic seriously - although many are still not obeying the instructions to stay at home..
Over the last week, government restrictions were increasingly imposed on social gatherings and businesses to slow the spread of the virus but my feeling is that most of what they have done has been too late by a week or two. Also some mistakes have been made, such as expecting returning travellers to go straight home and self-isolate, instead of strictly enforcing quarantine measures.
The stock market has dived from a record 7255 in January to a low of 4874. At least it's not zero. Mass employment lay-offs have occurred over the last week and there seems to be reduced traffic on our suburban streets. A lot of people really are beginning to stay at home.
Today, the Prime Minster said - for the first time - that people over 70 and people over 60 with chronic conditions should stay at home.
Hmmmm.... we're already on Day 41!
Overseas.
As at 29th March 2020, the world had reported 558,000 cases.
China has slowed its new case increase, with the number of reported cases beginning to stabilise at around 82,000.
The figures for Hubei province (pop 55.8 million) are 67,800 but the remaining 14,000 Chinese cases are spread right across their other thirty-three provinces.
Thirteen Chinese provinces have reported fewer than 200 cases!
The second highest province is Guangdong with twice the population (113 million) of Hubei but steady at just 1,467 cases. This total has already been surpassed by our own State of NSW (pop 8.1 million), with 1791 cases, which are rising at about 15% per day (albeit down from about 25% earlier in the month).
So what did China do to contain this wretched virus mostly within its state of origin - and why were we not able to contain it here?
What we do know is that China is no longer the worst hit country. Astonishingly, its case numbers have almost flat-lined and it has been overtaken by Italy (86,500) and the United States (85,200).
Positives.
1.The raw case fatality figures give some cause for optimism here in Australia - only 0.4%, compared with world-wide figures of 4.8%. I hope that is cause for optimism but maybe every nation gets a low case fatality rate until the hospital ICUs get overwhelmed with patients. I hope that is not the case. It could also be because the most vulnerable sector of the community here is self-isolating.
2. The new case figures have dropped from 25% to 15% over the last few days.
Outlook.
We both have a sense of anxiety and deep concern about what the future holds for us, for Australia and for the world. Somehow, I find that writing about it helps relieve some of the anxiety.
Our future is in the hands of the stoic members of the medical profession, in whom I trust; and a handful of politicians, in whom I no longer trust.
There is undoubtedly worse to come but there are signs that Australia can eventually contain the outbreak. However, my expectation is that our personal state of hibernation may last until the end of 2020. The big question is: how far can we ration our dwindling stock of supplies, before we have our real last supper?