Scary Times - 4

Heading into May, the the number of daily new covid-19 cases here in NSW has long since peaked and has not exceeded twelve over the last eleven days.

The overall number of cases in Australia (on 30th April 2020) is 6746 (3016 in NSW).  Deaths are 90 (42).

Our borders remain closed (including some state and territory borders), except for freight; and all cruise ships have finally departed.

Compared to most countries, Australia has done well. This is the Johns Hopkins graph of total cases in Australia: 

Most other countries are still on the upward curve. America is still trending up, already with 1,040,000 infections (and 61,000 deaths) so far. There are indications that many Americans objected to social restrictions, especially Pentecostal Churches.

The lessons learned in Australia are:

• Federal/State Government (and Health Department) cooperation was important.
• Government acting upon advice of scientists was key.
• Lock-downs work.
• Large scale testing works
• Tracing contacts with known cases works.
• Australia closed the border with China but then the virus arrived through open borders with Europe and America.
• Returning residents must be put in enforced (not voluntary) quarantine.
• Cruise ships can be death ships.
• We cannot eradicate the virus without a vaccine.
• Old and otherwise vulnerable people pick up the infection from younger people.
• Young people who get the virus have a better chance of survival and young people do not like social restrictions.
• Older people are likely to be forced to remain in voluntary isolation for a long time - or put themselves at risk.
• Apps that track the virus are valuable but some people have an irrational mistrust of government apps.

There is now an air of public expectancy that restrictions should be lifted soon and everything will be back to normal again soon. Already schools are moving towards reopening; and from 1st May, households can receive up to two adult visitors (+children). The Prime Minister originally stated that restrictions would be in place for at least six months but has now flagged further restrictions may be lifted this month.

Some countries thought they'd beaten the virus but after lifting restrictions were engulfed by a second wave of infections. I hope the Federal and State Governments know what they are doing and not just allowing economic considerations and public expectations to to dominate over medical advice. 

My Bride and I are remaining in total lock-down, regardless of what the restriction levels become.