Mar 13: Scary Times - 2
According to the Australian Government Health Report:
"as at 11:00 hrs on 12 March 2020, we have 126 confirmed cases of corona virus (COVID-19), including 3 deaths, in Australia." 64 are in New South Wales.
Doesn't sound too bad does it? except it's only just started and the numbers are increasing at rates varying between 7% and 25% per day across the country.
According to this Guardian article today:
"The chief health officer, Dr Kerry Chant, says preparations are under way for 20% of the state’s eight million residents to catch Covid-19.
"Up to 1.6 million people in New South Wales could be hit by the first wave of a statewide corona virus outbreak with up to 80,000 people likely to require intensive care simultaneously.
"Health workers in NSW have been told to prepare for 8,000 deaths from Covid-19 over the duration of the epidemic, and that the “first wave” of the virus could last for up to 22 weeks."
Extrapolating the government projections:
1. 1.6 million infections from a population of 8.1 million in NSW, and a "first wave" infection rate of 20%.
2. 8000 deaths, representing 10% of those who require intensive care. It seems to be based on an overall case fatality rate of only 0.5%.
3. If the "first wave" began in March, they project it will last until September.
4. There are about 220 'hospitals and health services' in NSW, I'm not sure how they will handle 80,000 ICU patients simultaneously.
5. That's about 360 ICU patients per location - many of which would be very small facilities.
---------------
We plan to survive this outbreak by staying at home in self-isolation for the rest of the year, only going out if we need supplies or medical attention.
It's going to be an awfully long year.
