Mar 1: Scary Times - 1
As a young man aged 17, I remember the Cuban Missile Crisis as one of the scariest times of my life.
My parents had lived through both World Wars, so I was spared those horrors. I was born in the non-nuclear age - just.
My birth was after the conflict in Europe had ended - but it was the herald of a Big Bang: the first atomic nuclear explosion, which occurred when I was one day old.
That momentous event was to eventually lead to the two nuclear super-powers, US and Russia, facing off in 1962. The general feeling at the time was that we were on the cusp of the mass destruction of humanity (and that it was very likely to happen). Fortunately it didn't - but it was a traumatic and anxious period for the entire world.
Now, after a summer of crisis here in NSW, with bushfires so powerful - the likes of which Australia has never seen - we are faced with a new crisis: covid-19, the corona virus.
The government is making sure they do not make the same mistakes they made with the bushfires, (by ignoring the experts who predicted the calamity); and with Climate Change (by ridiculing expert advice) but will it be enough? They have always been smug about their overly strong border control.
The next few weeks will be a major test for the government, to see if it can stop covid-19 crossing our borders.
So what is the outlook? In this ABC News article an expert tells us:
"I think with our containment approach, we can keep it down to well under 50 per cent of the population getting sick.
"That's still a lot and I would like to see it down to 10 to 20 per cent of people."
"Authorities needed to act promptly to prevent it spreading. This is a highly transmissible virus. It's surprising how transmissible it is. It is really quite worrying.
50% of the Australian population!!!!
So here are some quick projections, based on the Australian population of 25,600,000 and current case-fatality rates for covid-19 of 1%-4%.
The maths are simple and the potential outcomes are horrendous:
| Infected (%) |
Infected (#) |
Fatality 1% |
Fatality 2% |
Fatality 3% |
Fatality 4% |
| 5% | 1,280,000 | 12,800 | 25,600 | 38,400 | 51,200 |
| 10% | 2,560,000 | 25,600 | 51,200 | 76,800 | 102,400 |
| 25% | 6,400,000 | 64,000 | 128,000 | 192,000 | 256,000 |
| 50% | 12,800,000 | 128,000 | 256,400 | 384,400 | 512,000 |
| 100% | 25,600,000 | 256,000 | 512,000 | 768,000 | 1,024,000 |
For example, if the outbreak can be restricted to 10% of the Australian population and the case-fatality rate kept to 1%, then Australia will experience 25,600 deaths from the virus.
From the sound of it, judging from official reports, that seems a best case scenario. 😨
On 1st March 2020, when I posted this, we've only had twenty-five cases (with one death) so far here in Australia.
By 4th March, when I edited it, the statistics were thirty-three cases (one death, twenty-one recovered).
If the virus takes off here, as it surely will, it's going to affect people badly.
Beyond that, business and the economy will suffer. The stock exchange is already falling. Inflation and unemployment will rise.
Business sectors such as travel, hospitality, entertainment and sport will be hit hard. Food will become scarce......
I'm not sure where this will all lead.
So.....we're back on the cusp of the mass destruction of humanity again.
EDIT: 4th March 2019 - added column for 1% Case Fatality and other text refinements.
